I just love those days when you get texts like this from well-meaning friends:
"Wow-- see the news about probiotics and peanut allergies??"
{Not.... particularly... but I can probably guess.... {sigh} Goes to look at google news.}
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/11374305/Fatal-peanut-allergies-could-be-cured-by-probiotic-bacteria-say-Australian-doctors.htmland more tellingly--
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/peanut-allergies-could-be-cured-as-trial-on-children-has-82-success-rate-with-probiotics-10008864.htmlA group of 28 peanut-allergic children aged up to 10 were given increased doses of the peanut protein every two weeks with a fixed amount of probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus that is said to equate to about 20kg of yoghurt a day
What, one wonders, did the placebo group get? NOTHING.
A total of 23 out of the 28 were able to include products made from peanuts into their diet and researchers in Victoria, Australia, concluded that the success rate was seven in nine.
A placebo group of another 28 children only had one case of success at the end of the trial.
Children who had severe reactions to peanuts were excluded from the test and test subjects suffered abdominal pain,vomiting and hives.
Hmph. SO you cherry picked those MOST likely to outgrow, in other words, when you set up your study. Nice.
23 Kids' peanut allergies were cured-- at least temporarily <--- by far the most reserved of the headlines pulled up in the top 50 results
OH. THAT.
And so you respond, (having read the fine print-- the part which notes that one of the PLACEBO group also "outgrew" during the study period, conflating the results somewhat... and that there was no immunotherapy control group without probiotics, meaning that any claim of probiotic effect is, er-- speculative at best-- )
"Yes. The study design and results are ratherr similar to oral immunotherapy trials which have been ongoing in the US for about 10yr. Sadly it doesn't look all that earth shattering. I think that the media locked onto it because of the popularity of the probiotic link."
"Bummer
"
Me again; "Yeah. The fine print usually doesn't match the promise of the headlines, unfortunately."
Friend---
"we can keep hoping"
What? No timeline?? "Five more years??" I'm also left wondering if there is
anyone that I know who isn't completely doolally with respect to the vast and varied assortment of sheer overwhelming WOO in the world these days. For heaven's sakes, this is a person who is a scientist and should
recognize the flaws in this study's design.
One group: placebo (sham desensitization)-- most had no improvement in tolerance, and one had remission
Other group: Probiotics and oral immunotherapy with peanut flour-- 80% had improved tolerance.
Um. 80% is not any different from the US studies that
didn't roll probiotics into treatment. This is what we would call a
conflating variable in the study design. AT BEST, there is a
marginal (and non-significant) impact on efficacy of treatment. There is also at this point NO way of knowing whether probiotics cause such treatment to "hold" better than not providing them does (and the answer to the latter is "for some patients, treatment must be ongoing or it fails").
SO.
I just wasted 15 minutes of my day on this.